According to the UNWTO’s 2023 Tourism Recovery Tracker, arrivals in the Western Balkans remain 34% below 2019 levels — the widest gap of any European subregion. That number is not a warning. That number is a window.
The mangal smoke hits you before you see the grill. It mixes with pomegranate molasses from a vendor two stalls over, and for a moment you are not sure if you are hungry or just stunned that a city this beautiful costs almost nothing. That is Tbilisi on a Tuesday morning in the old quarter. Your guesthouse cost $28. Your breakfast cost $3. And you have not seen another tourist in four hours.
Some travelers look at that scene and call it an opportunity. Others look at the same scene and call it a red flag. The debate is real, and it matters, because the 18-to-24-month window before rates in these cities normalize is already closing.
Here is what the guidebooks do not tell you: the cities that emptied are not broken. They are between moments. And the people who move first will not just save money. They will see the version of these places that only exists once.
Side A: Empty Cities Are Opportunity, Not Warning
The argument here is straightforward. When tourism infrastructure exists but tourists have not yet returned, you get a city operating at full capacity priced at a fraction of its own potential.
Tbilisi is the clearest example. A 2024 Numbeo cost-of-living report ranked it among the ten least expensive capitals in Europe for mid-range travelers, with a daily budget of $35 to $55 covering accommodation, three meals, and local transport. The infrastructure is real: international flights from major hubs, a functioning metro, English menus in most Sololaki restaurants. The crowds are not.
Pro Tip: Book accommodation in Sololaki or the Abanotubani sulfur bath district, not the newer commercial strips. Guesthouses here run $25 to $40 per night and are within walking distance of the Narikala fortress, the best free view in the Caucasus.
Have you ever arrived somewhere famous and felt like you were watching a show instead of living in a place? Tbilisi in 2024 is the opposite of that. You are not an audience member. You are just there.
Sarajevo makes the same case. A 2024 report from the Sarajevo Canton Tourism Board found that average accommodation costs remained 40% below comparable Balkan capitals, despite a full post-conflict restoration of the old town. The Baščaršija market functions daily. The food is extraordinary. The travelers are scarce.
Plovdiv, Bulgaria’s second city and a former European Capital of Culture, rounds out the argument. The Kapana arts district has a full calendar of events, working galleries, and some of the best small-plate restaurants in Eastern Europe. Prices have not caught up with the product.
Did You Know: Plovdiv is one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in Europe, predating Rome by roughly 6,000 years. The old town admission is free. The average meal in Kapana runs $6 to $9.
Side B: Empty Cities Are Empty for a Reason
The counterargument is not wrong, and it deserves a fair hearing.
Some cities lost their crowds because something broke. Whether from infrastructure failure, political instability, or a reputation that tourism marketing cannot outrun, not every emptied destination is a sleeping giant. Some are genuinely difficult. The honest traveler has to ask: is this place between moments, or is this place stuck?
Kotor, Montenegro is a case worth examining. The walled city is stunning. The logistics are genuinely punishing: no central bus station, taxi pricing that varies wildly, and a heat in July that makes the narrow stone streets feel like a closed oven. The crowds left during COVID. Some came back. Many did not return a second time, and their reviews explain why.
Warning: Kotor’s old town accommodation listings frequently use exterior fortress photos that do not reflect the actual room. Filter for listings with 10 or more photos and check that at least three show interior natural light. Rooms built into the wall itself often have no windows. That is not atmosphere. That is a problem after day two.
The broader Side B argument is that travelers who chase “empty” as a category, rather than evaluating each city on its specific fundamentals, end up disappointed and occasionally stranded. What would you do with a full month in Europe for under $1,500 total, only to discover the city you chose has three working restaurants and transport that stops at 8pm?
That risk is real.
Yerevan and Matera: The Two That Settle the Debate
Here is where the argument clarifies. Two cities sit at the exact intersection of the debate: genuinely emptied, genuinely ready, and genuinely underpriced.
Yerevan, Armenia is one of the most underrated capitals on earth. The café culture rivals Beirut. The cognac is world-class. The food costs almost nothing. A 2023 World Bank regional development report noted Armenia’s tourism sector operating at roughly 60% of its pre-2020 visitor volume, with hospitality infrastructure exceeding demand in the capital by a significant margin. That gap is exactly what you want.
When did you last eat a three-course dinner for under fifteen dollars, in a city with a functioning arts district, a walkable center, and a backdrop of a snow-capped biblical mountain?
Pro Tip: The Ararat Brandy distillery tour is one of the best experiences in the Caucasus region, and it sells out. Book 48 hours ahead via the official Ararat website at araratbrandy.com. The guided tasting runs roughly $12 and covers vintages unavailable outside Armenia. Do not leave Yerevan without doing this.
Matera, Italy is the other case. This UNESCO-listed cave city in Basilicata was named a European Capital of Culture in 2019, drew a surge of visitors, then watched that surge collapse during COVID. It has not fully recovered. A mid-range hotel in the sassi district now runs $70 to $110 per night, down from the $180 to $220 peak-year pricing. The city is extraordinary. The availability is wide open.
Warning: Sassi cave hotel listings on major booking platforms frequently feature exterior shots of the dramatic stone facades. Check listing photos carefully. Rooms carved directly into the hillside can lack natural light entirely. Look for listings that show the actual sleeping area with a window visible. If no window appears in any of the interior photos, assume there is no window. That detail matters more than the view from the terrace.
Do you actually need the famous city, or do you need the feeling the famous city used to give people before everyone found it? Matera gives you that feeling. Right now. At 2021 prices.
My Position, Clearly Stated
Side B is right that “empty” is not automatically good. Side A is right that the current window in specific cities is real, narrow, and closing. The answer is not to chase emptiness. The answer is to identify cities where the infrastructure is intact, the culture is deep, and the recovery lag is purely a function of perception rather than a broken product.
Tbilisi, Sarajevo, Plovdiv, Yerevan, and Matera all qualify. Kotor qualifies with caveats. The 18-to-24-month window is not a metaphor. It is a pricing cycle, and it is already moving.
The travelers who act in the next 60 days will look back at their cost-per-day numbers the way people look back at pre-inflation budget decisions they either made or missed. The math is that clear.
I have been to 40 countries. This surprised me: the best value travel windows are never announced. They are noticed, then gone.
Nobody is talking about this destination — but they should be. Several of them, actually.
Your Next 3 Steps
Step 1: Open Google Flights right now. Set your origin airport and run a flexible-date search targeting Tbilisi, Yerevan, or Sarajevo. Filter for Tuesday or Wednesday departures in the next 60 days. Screenshot the lowest fare you find. Fares in this range move fast, and the price you see today will not be there next week.
Step 2: Go to Booking.com and filter by neighborhood, not city center. In Tbilisi, search Sololaki. In Sarajevo, search Kovači. In Plovdiv, search Kapana. In Matera, filter sassi listings for those showing interior window photos. You will pay 30 to 50 percent less than the top tourist-strip results, and the stays will be better.
Step 3: Set a Google Flights price alert for your top two cities from this list and leave it running. The 18-to-24-month pricing window is real but not uniform. Alerts are free, and the email you receive in three weeks could be the cheapest round-trip fare you buy this decade. Pair that with the Ararat distillery booking the moment you confirm Yerevan — 48 hours advance notice, official site, do not skip it.
