In the 2023–24 academic year, the average Power Four NIL collective raised an estimated $10.2 million per program, according to an analysis by On3 Sports. The average mid-major D1 program? Closer to $800,000. That’s not a gap. That’s a canyon with no rope bridge in sight.

Do you actually know what your favorite small-college program is competing against right now? Not rival schools in the same conference. Not better coaching staffs. Not superior weight rooms. Money. Cold, direct, restructuring-the-sport money that most fans at Northern Iowa, JMU, or Murray State don’t fully see until their best player shows up on a SEC depth chart.

Here is what the numbers tell us: the NIL gold rush didn’t just reward the rich. It mechanically disqualified programs that built identities around development, loyalty, and grinding. What follows are the seven structural reasons why small D1 schools are losing this fight before the first whistle.

1. Their NIL Collectives Are Outgunned Before They Launch

The collective model was supposed to democratize NIL. It did the opposite. When Texas or Ohio State boosters decide to fund a collective, they’re pulling from alumni networks worth hundreds of billions in aggregate wealth. When a school like Northern Iowa launches one, they’re asking a smaller, less affluent donor base to match that energy. They can’t. A 2023 study from the National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics found that 73% of schools outside the Power Four reported their collective funding as “inadequate to retain portal targets.” That number should stop you cold.

2. The Transfer Portal Turned Roster-Building Into an Auction

Before 2021, a coach at a school like JMU could develop a three-star recruit into an all-conference player and reasonably expect that player to stay. Now that player can enter the portal as a sophomore, field offers from twelve schools, and sign with whoever bids highest, all within a 30-day window. JMU won a national championship at the FCS level in 2022, then made the jump to FBS. Within two seasons, multiple key contributors had entered the portal toward programs offering substantially higher NIL packages. Nine wins. And the roster still walked.

Did You Know: The NCAA transfer portal saw 21,846 entries in the 2023–24 cycle, per NCAA data, a 29% increase from the prior year. Small programs lose proportionally more players because they can’t counter-offer.

To understand why this matters, you need to go back to June 2021. The Supreme Court ruled unanimously in NCAA v. Alston that the NCAA’s restrictions on education-related benefits violated antitrust law. That ruling didn’t just change policy. It ended an era small programs had built their entire identity around. Once the courts confirmed the NCAA couldn’t restrict compensation, the floodgates didn’t open gradually. They blew off the hinges. Every constraint that kept wealthy programs from simply buying rosters was suddenly operating on borrowed time, and small schools had no financial reserve to absorb the shock.

4. Their Operating Budgets Were Already Structurally Thin

Here’s a number that doesn’t get nearly enough attention: according to the Knight Commission’s 2023 college athletics financial database, only 25 of 363 D1 programs generated more revenue than they spent without institutional subsidy. The other 338 were already running on life support before NIL arrived. So what exactly does a school with a $30 million athletic budget do when the opposing collective is structured like a hedge fund and dropping six-figure offers on linebackers before spring practice even starts? The honest answer: it watches. It waits. And it loses.

Reality Check: A school like Appalachian State operates with a total athletic budget roughly one-eighth the size of a program like Tennessee. NIL collectives at that level don’t close that gap — they widen it. The math was never going to work out.

5. Scheduling Incentives Are Creating a Debt Trap

Here’s something Nobody is talking about — but they should be. Small D1 programs are taking massive “guarantee game” payouts to play road games at Power Four schools, sometimes earning $1.5 to $2 million per appearance. That money sounds like a lifeline. It’s actually a treadmill. Programs use it to fund operations, which means they’re structurally dependent on losing. Win too convincingly and you lose the invitation. The incentive actively penalizes competitive development. Murray State plays that game. So does Weber State. The check clears. The scoreboard doesn’t.

6. Coaching Retention Has Become Practically Impossible

When a coordinator at a mid-major starts producing NFL-caliber players or winning conference titles, they’re gone within 18 months. The Power Four can now offer coaches not just higher salaries, but the recruiting pitch that their school’s collective will attract players no mid-major can touch. It’s a compounding problem: better coaches leave, recruiting suffers, the collective weakens further, and the cycle accelerates. A 2024 survey by the American Football Coaches Association found that assistant coach turnover at non-Power schools was 34% higher than at Power Four programs. That turnover doesn’t just hurt this season. It sets programs back three to five years per coaching cycle.

Warning: The next round of mid-major program cuts won’t just be about winning and losing records. Schools facing combined pressure from NIL deficits, portal losses, and coaching turnover are genuinely at risk of dropping athletic programs entirely. Since 2020, at least 19 D1 programs have eliminated one or more varsity sports to manage budget strain, per the NCAA’s own sport sponsorship reports. Small D1 programs are not insulated from that trend. They are leading it.

7. The Regulatory Framework Still Has No Real Teeth

The NCAA has issued guidelines, formed task forces, and published frameworks on NIL governance since 2021. None of it has meaningfully slowed the spending gap. The House v. NCAA settlement, expected to take effect in 2025, would allow schools to directly share up to $20 million annually with athletes, but that number still heavily favors programs with the revenue base to absorb it. The regulatory structure keeps shifting fast, and small programs lack the legal and compliance staff to respond in real time. Many athletic directors at smaller schools are essentially making consequential roster and budget decisions without knowing what the rules will be in six months. That’s not just stressful. It’s an unwinnable position.

What fans actually need to know is this: the small D1 model isn’t dying because these programs lack heart, coaching intelligence, or competitive spirit. It’s dying because the financial architecture of college sports was rebuilt overnight and nobody left a blueprint for the programs that can’t afford the materials.

If you care about competitive balance, about Northern Iowa pulling off an upset, about JMU building something real from the ground up, you need to care about the structures underneath the game. The stress of watching institutions you love get hollowed out by systemic inequity hits differently when you understand the mechanics. And understanding the mechanics starts with knowing where to look.

Your Next 3 Steps

Step 1: Go to On3.com and search your school’s name plus “NIL collective.” On3 maintains one of the most comprehensive public databases of collective profiles and estimated war chests. If your program’s collective isn’t listed or shows a minimal figure, that’s your baseline. Screenshot it. Come back to it in six months. The trend line matters more than the snapshot.

Step 2: Pull your school’s NCAA financial disclosure report. These are public and searchable through the Knight Commission’s College Athletics Financial Information database. Find your program’s total operating expenses and compare them line by line to two or three conference rivals. The gap in “athletics-related revenue” is where the NIL problem lives. If you’re a program stakeholder, this is the document your AD should be presenting at every donor meeting.

Step 3: Follow your school’s athletic director and the beat writer who covers your program on social media right now, before you close this tab. The next wave of portal departures, collective announcements, and program restructuring decisions will surface there first, often 48 to 72 hours before any national outlet picks it up. ESPN covers the Power Four. The local beat writer covers your team. Subscribe to their newsletter if they have one. That’s where the real news breaks.

The stat that changes everything isn’t the final score. It’s the collective war chest your opponent’s booster club filed last November. Start there.